The import and export volume of chemical fertilizers decreased significantly. Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China's fertilizer imports and exports have decreased in 2020. According to customs statistics, from January to August, 17.08 million tons of various fertilizers were exported, a decrease of 5.8 percent over the same period last year. Among them, urea exports 2.1 million tons, down 22.0 percent year-on-year; diammonium phosphate exports 3.6 million tons, down 12.6 percent year-on-year; monoammonium phosphate exports 1.72 million tons, down 9.2 percent year-on-year. From January to August, 6.81 million tons of various fertilizers were imported, down 16.8 per cent from the same period last year. Among them, potassium chloride was imported by 5.54 million tons, down 17.9 percent from the same period last year. Imports of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium ternary compound fertilizer were 950000 tons, up 0.9 percent from the same period last year.

Fertilizer prices fell. According to data from the China Chemical Industry Information Center, the average ex-factory price of domestic urea from January to September was 1707 yuan per ton, down 11.9 percent from the same period last year; the average ex-factory price of diammonium phosphate was 2227 yuan per ton, down 12.9 percent from the same period last year; the average ex-factory price of potassium chloride was 1958 yuan per ton, down 17.1 percent from the same period last year; and the average ex-factory price of compound fertilizer was 2123 yuan per ton, down 5.0 percent. The main reasons for the decline in fertilizer prices are as follows: first, due to the impact of the epidemic, the market demand for industrial fertilizers has decreased significantly, and the market is in a situation of oversupply; second, the prices of raw materials such as coal, sulfur and phosphate rock have fallen, and the cost support has weakened.

Social stocks have been reduced. Affected by factors such as reduced production and low demand, the inventory of fertilizer circulation has decreased. According to statistics from the China Agricultural Material Circulation Association, at the end of September, the supply and marketing cooperative system had 25.8871 million tons of fertilizer in stock, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5 percent, of which nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer decreased by 6.8 percent, 10.4 percent and 13.6 percent respectively.

Safety and environmental restrictions and the elimination of fixed bed installations may lead to a tight supply of fertilizers. In terms of safety, the National Emergency Management Department issued the ''Catalogue of Technology and Equipment for the Safe Production of Eliminating Backward Hazardous Chemicals (First Batch) ''in September to solicit opinions from the public, and the long-tooth fixed-bed intermittent coal gasification process was included in the safety risk. Elimination catalog; environmental protection, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the Technical Guide for the Development of Emergency Emission Reduction Measures for Key Industries in Heavy Pollution Weather (Revised Edition 2020), which explicitly requires key industries in heavy pollution weather to adopt performance-based emission reduction measures. In addition, some local governments have also issued relevant documents on the grounds of environmental protection, which explicitly require the elimination of fixed bed intermittent coal gasification process. At present, the production capacity of ammonia and urea plants using fixed bed process in China is over 20 million tons, accounting for more than 30% of the production capacity. If all of them are shut down, the supply of chemical fertilizer will be affected.

Fertilizer transportation may be limited. Due to the large production capacity of chemical fertilizers in the western and northwestern regions of my country, severe weather and Spring Festival transportation will affect chemical fertilizer transportation to a certain extent, and the limited circulation of chemical fertilizers will cause an imbalance between supply and demand in some areas. In addition, local outbreaks of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic may also lead to local logistics disruptions, thereby affecting fertilizer transportation and market circulation.

The counterfeit problem still exists. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control, during the epidemic, the local supply of domestic fertilizer was blocked, the sale of agricultural products also encountered certain difficulties, farmers to purchase fertilizer funds to reduce, which gave some fertilizer enterprises production and sales of stolen content, fake and shoddy products can take advantage of the opportunity. The production and sale of inferior fertilizers or even fake fertilizers not only interferes with the normal circulation order of the agricultural material market, affects the sales of formal enterprise products, but also harms the interests of farmers. According to the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the vigorous development of the e-commerce economy has to a certain extent spawned a counterfeit and counterfeit market. Fake fertilizers continue to appear in e-commerce platforms, and even complaints cannot solve the problem of counterfeit infringement.

In terms of varieties, in terms of nitrogen fertilizer, the actual domestic supply of nitrogen fertilizer increased slightly in the first three quarters, and the operating rate of enterprises has continued to rise recently. The average operating rate in September increased by 1.34 percentage points from the previous month, with a daily output of about 160000 tons. The market supply in autumn and winter is relatively sufficient. It is expected that as commercial spring ploughing fertilizer storage enterprises enter the market one after another to purchase, the overall supply will be sufficient next spring ploughing fertilizer. However, due to the heating season heavy pollution weather production restrictions, natural gas supply constraints and raw material prices and other factors, nitrogen fertilizer market prices are more likely to rise.

Phosphate fertilizer, the first three quarters of raw material prices are still low compared to last year, the cost of phosphate fertilizer support is not strong, the current plant construction is at a high level, the supply is relatively stable, can better guarantee the supply of next year's spring ploughing. However, in the international market, the market demand in South Asia, Southeast Asia and other regions is still strong, which promotes the continuous rise of export prices. It is expected that the price of phosphate fertilizer will rise in the later period.

Potash fertilizer, the port inventory is relatively sufficient, the follow-up shipping potassium still has some sources of goods to Hong Kong, salt lake potassium production and shipment is relatively stable, with the production of hair, is expected in the fourth quarter of the domestic resource-based potash fertilizer market supply will reach 1.5 million tons, to ensure the supply of potash fertilizer this winter and next spring. Driven by the increase in demand for fertilizer in autumn and the increase in demand from downstream compound fertilizer companies, it is expected that potash fertilizer prices still have room to rise, but the increase will not be too large.

In terms of compound fertilizer, affected by the increasingly concentrated pace of delivery, it is expected that social inventory will remain low in the first half of winter storage. While factory profits are challenged, inventory pressure will continue to increase. Epidemic or seasonal demand concentration may bring certain pressure on factory production and logistics transportation. However, enterprises can better cope with the continuous adaptation in recent years and there will be no large-scale and general shortage of goods, can ensure the safety of spring fertilizer, compound fertilizer prices are expected to be stable.

Establish an emergency safeguard mechanism in case of emergency. In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of fertilizer marketization, the "reservoir" role of the circulation system continues to weaken, which is also one of the reasons for frequent changes in market prices and large price fluctuations in the early stages of the epidemic, so it is particularly important to strengthen logistics and transportation security. It is suggested that green channels for railway, highway and waterway transportation should be opened in time for the transportation of chemical fertilizers and other materials for people's livelihood, the passage fees should be reduced, the passage procedures should be simplified, and corresponding safeguard measures should be established for transportation personnel. Realize the information interconnection of related logistics industries, release public logistics information to the society in a timely manner, strengthen overall scheduling, precise arrangements, and ensure the high-speed operation of the logistics system.

Intensify efforts to crack down on counterfeit agricultural materials. We will continue to strengthen the supervision and purification of the agricultural material market in extraordinary times, step up efforts to crack down on fake and shoddy products and price hikes, punish illegal acts strictly and promptly, stabilize market order, and ensure the smooth progress of agricultural production. we will ensure the quality and safety of agricultural products and protect the interests of legally operating chemical fertilizer enterprises.

Promote fertilizer reduction and efficiency. In order to promote the reduction and efficiency of chemical fertilizer, chemical fertilizer production enterprises should attach great importance to the research and development of new technologies and new products, take the improvement of fertilizer utilization rate and agricultural green development as the core starting point of technological innovation, and constantly increase investment in scientific and technological innovation and product research and development. produce a variety of differentiated new fertilizers. At the same time, the supply and marketing cooperative system should give full play to the role of the main channel of agricultural material circulation, improve the construction of agricultural socialized service system, strengthen land trusteeship, land circulation, soil testing and formula fertilization, unified prevention and control, and integration of water and fertilizer, so as to promote agricultural weight loss and efficiency, and realize the green and sustainable development of agricultural production.