Recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released a report saying that the lifting of the epidemic prevention blockade since June has avoided a deeper decline in global trade, with global merchandise trade expected to fall 9.2 percent from 2019, while noting that downside risks remain if a renewed Covid-19 outbreak stalls the economic recovery. In late September, the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports monitored by the China Ports Association increased by 1.0 year-on-year, of which foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 2.0 year-on-year; the throughput of Yangtze River hub ports fell by 5.4 year-on-year. details are as follows:

                                    

 

1. eight hub port foreign trade container business growth speed up

 

In late September, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports monitored by the China Port Association increased by 4.0 year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down from the previous period. By port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port, Xiamen Port, Shenzhen Port throughput growth rate of more than 10%. In this period, the foreign trade throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 10.7 compared with the same period last year, further accelerating compared with the previous period; among them, the foreign trade growth rate of Qingdao Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port and Xiamen Port all exceeded 10%, and the foreign trade growth rate of Shanghai Port and Shenzhen Port exceeded 20%. Port feedback, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and North America route volume recovery faster. In response to the early North American route space constraints, cargo volume rose faster, Maersk and other liner companies said they will cancel all suspended flights along the Pacific coast to increase capacity supply. In this period, the growth rate of domestic trade has slowed down, and the domestic trade container throughput of the eight major ports has dropped by 13.1 year-on-year; in terms of ports, the growth rate of Tianjin Port and Ningbo Zhoushan Port has exceeded 10%.

 

2. Key Monitoring Ports Coal Business Continues to Maintain Growth

 

In late September, under the influence of factors such as the gradual rebound in coal market demand, severe crackdowns on coal mine super-capacity production in some production areas, the maintenance of the Daqin line, and the continued restriction of imported coal, the supply of the coal market continued to be tight, and the enthusiasm for power plant procurement was high. The coal shipment volume maintained a growth trend, and the port inventory dropped sharply. In this period, the coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port and Shenhua Huanghua Port increased by 3.3 year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7 percentage points lower than the previous period; the stock of coal ports in the two ports decreased by 16.4 year-on-year.

 

3. Key Monitoring Ports Crude Oil Throughput Growth Slowdown

 

In late September, the outbreak rebounded in various countries, raising concerns among market investors about the prospects for a recovery in crude oil demand, and oil prices fluctuated slightly downward. In this period, the China Port Association focused on monitoring the crude oil throughput of coastal ports, an increase of 9.1. Among them, Qingdao Port, Yantai Port, Dalian Port growth rate of more than 10%, the early ship to port pressure problem has been alleviated. As of September 30, the inventory of key monitoring ports increased by 31.8 over the same period last year, and the inventory remained high.

 

4. key monitoring port metal ore throughput to maintain a rapid growth rate

 

In late September, steel market demand continued to pick up, downstream enterprises increased demand for pre-holiday stocking, steel inventories continued to decline month-on-month, and the operating rate of steel mills remained stable. Iron ore prices fluctuated significantly. On the 30th, the 2101 iron ore price exceeded 809 yuan/ton, up 4.2 per cent from the 21st. In late September, the China Port Association focused on monitoring port metal ore throughput growth of 9.1. On a month-on-month basis, mid-day throughput increased by 6.1 compared to the previous period. By port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port, Tianjin Port growth rate of more than 10%. Iron ore port inventories fell 9.2 per cent year-on-year, widening the decline.

 

5. Yangtze River hub port business continues to recover, but the stamina is slightly insufficient.

 

Statistics show that in late September, the total cargo throughput of Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing fell 5.4 percent year-on-year, but increased 8.6 percent compared with mid-September, indicating that the port business is in the recovery stage. The container business continued to recover, with the container throughput of the three ports increasing by 2.6 year-on-year, slowing down from the previous period. In terms of ports, Wuhan Port's business continued to improve, with cargo throughput increasing by 1% year-on-year and container throughput increasing by 37.09 year-on-year. The foreign trade business of Nanjing Port recovered rapidly, with foreign trade throughput and foreign trade container throughput increasing by 31.14 and 13% respectively over the same period last year.

 

6. September coastal key monitoring port container business resumed to speed up, the growth rate of bulk cargo has slowed down.

 

In September, the China Port Association focused on monitoring that the cargo throughput of coastal ports increased by 4.4 year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2 percentage points lower than that in August.

 

Container business speed up. In September, the container throughput of the eight major hub ports increased by 6% year-on-year, the fastest growth rate this year. Among them, foreign trade increased by 8.6, nearly 5 percentage points faster than the previous month; domestic trade fell by 1.2 year-on-year, the first year-on-year decline since April. Bulk cargo business has slowed. Among them, the coal throughput of Qinhuangdao Port and Shenhua Huanghua Port increased by 2.4 in September compared with the same period last year, down 6 percentage points from August. The oil throughput of key monitoring ports increased by 14.6 in September compared with the same period last year, down 3 percentage points from August. The ore throughput of key monitoring ports in September increased by 7.3 year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from August.

 

China Port Association

October 10, 2002