In the last week of March, since March 26, the price of ammonium sulfate has finally changed from the previous ups and downs to a full-scale increase. However, this price increase has made some ammonium sulfate manufacturers feel a bit ridiculous. First, the spring market seems to be coming to an end (basically in mid-April). Second, export orders seem to be sporadically absent. Third, the pressure on environmental protection has eased and the output of ammonium sulfate, a chemical by-product, has basically returned to normal.

First of all, it is stated that although this is a full-scale increase, the increase is very small. The prices of most ammonium sulfate manufacturers in Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei have only increased by 5-20 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. The three points mentioned at the beginning of the article are the reasons for the very small increase in the price increase.

However, since the price has started to rise in an all-round way, we have to make a small study of the reasons for the price increase and study whether we will do more or not.

First, traders and dealers have too many reserves years ago. With the passage of the fertilizer market in spring, these sources of goods have been basically digested. These traders and distributors currently have low stocks, realize that environmental pressure has been temporarily eased and transportation has been restored. They are ready to operate ammonium sulfate in an appropriate amount to meet the demand of summer fertilizer market.

Second, exports from poor to good. First of all, the export volume of ammonium sulfate in February was only 355500 tons, which was the lowest in a single month in a year and a half. In the usual month, the export volume of ammonium sulfate was 43-500000 tons, even reaching a peak of 720000 tons (November 2017). It can be seen that the export situation in February 2018 is not miserable. The so-called negative Thailand is probably the case, especially due to the high asking price of ammonium sulfate in China, on March 13, Turkey canceled the tender for the purchase of 40000 tons of ammonium sulfate and privately ordered 40000 tons of ammonium sulfate. Subsequently, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate, a by-product of caprolactam in China, was steadily and moderately lowered by 20-40 yuan/ton. It is conceivable that the low price can naturally attract a little more export orders. Since then, the operation of China's ammonium sulfate export traders has been slightly more active. By the end of March, of course, under the premise of signing export orders at low prices or intending to sign export orders at low prices, the price they give ammonium sulfate manufacturers is only a small increase for the time being.

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Third, environmental factors are unknown, but the strict policy will not change. Environmental protection pressure is great. The output of ammonium sulfate produced by chemical by-products such as cyanuric acid will be extremely low. Later, transportation will be poor. Then, the start-up of downstream extruded granular ammonium sulfate enterprises, compound fertilizer enterprises, chemical enterprises, fire fighting equipment enterprises, especially rare earth enterprises will also be limited. Environmental protection inspections will be strengthened before and after the Beijing meeting in March, and the price of ammonium sulfate will naturally rise and fall. However, the air quality has improved recently, environmental protection inspection is not strong, cyanuric acid and other chemical by-products ammonium sulfate production has basically reached full open state, downstream enterprises are also recovering, ammonium sulfate prices then first suppressed and then rose. However, the intensity of environmental protection inspection before and after the Qingdao summit in early June is still unknown. Under the condition of little environmental pressure before the end of May, downstream enterprises will try their best to start work. It is understandable that these enterprises and ammonium sulfate middlemen should stock up in advance. A small price increase may become the mainstream of the market.

In short, it is difficult for the price of ammonium sulfate to rise sharply. Assuming that the price of ammonium sulfate rises sharply, the profits of middlemen will be reduced or even lost, and the receipt of goods for export should slow down. Once the price falls sharply, the export will obviously improve. In addition, the full opening of new ammonium sulfate production capacity in 2017-2018 and the start-up of ammonium sulfate production capacity to be put into production will also inhibit the sharp rise of ammonium sulfate price.